State employment most at risk of financial struggle in America revealed in new study, Understanding the Risk: US State employment Predictions for 2024
Tennessee is most at risk of suffering from a job recession, a new study by JobLeads can reveal.
78% of American citizens live in fear of losing their job, as it was revealed that 87% of businesses are likely to lay off staff if a recession happens. With this, many states could be at risk, but which states are the most vulnerable?
Interested to find out more, JobLeads studied job growth around key financial events over the past 16 years. They then ranked these states byhow vulnerable they are to a recession.
Key Findings:
- Tennessee is most at risk of falling into a recession with a vulnerability score of 7.72/10
- This state has had a -4.83% change in employment growth before the financial crash
- There has been a -0.20% job growth regression since 2005 in Tennessee
“There is an incredible amount of discussion around the recession, especially in the US,” said Jan Hendrik von Ahlen, representative for JobLeads. “Employment numbers have been decreasing immensely since before the pandemic impacting various industries and states across the nation. With a total of nearly 7.2 million citizens unemployed, it is clear that volatility is super high and many employers are cutting jobs despite career openings hitting 8.1 million in April, this has actually fallen by 35% from the peak in 2022.”
Top 10 states most likely to be affected by a recession
| Rank | State | Change in job growth before covid (%) | Change in job growth during covid (%) | Change in job growth before financial crash (%) | Change in job growth after financial crash (%) | Net job growth 2005-2023 (%) | Vulnerability likelihood score /10 |
| 1 | Arizona | -2.29 | 3.04 | -10.10 | 5.35 | -0.17 | 7.8 |
| 2 | Tennessee | -2.87 | 4.04 | -4.83 | 4.74 | -0.20 | 7.72 |
| 3* | Florida | -3.74 | 5.89 | -8.22 | 6.81 | -0.30 | 7.64 |
| 3* | North Carolina | -2.82 | 4.27 | -4.76 | 3.21 | -0.15 | 7.64 |
| 5 | Georgia | -3.83 | 5.43 | -5.03 | 4.59 | -0.16 | 7.62 |
| 6 | New Mexico | -5.02 | 8.38 | -4.15 | 1.73 | -0.08 | 7.59 |
| 7 | Washington | -4.03 | 5.40 | -3.81 | 2.46 | -0.10 | 7.57 |
| 8* | Arkansas | -2.09 | 4.03 | -2.70 | 2.15 | -0.16 | 7.54 |
| 8* | Delaware | -4.66 | 6.32 | -3.43 | 3.50 | -0.17 | 7.54 |
| 8* | Idaho | -0.06 | -1.41 | -8.91 | 4.54 | -0.14 | 7.54 |
To access the entire dataset, view here.
Ranking as the state most at risk of suffering a recession is Arizona, with a total vulnerability score of 7.8 out of 10. Whilst the housing market remains stressed from rising prices and there have been signs of slowed GDP growth, this score has benchmarked the state as needing the most help.
This state is seen as vulnerable due to the lack of job growth pre-financial crash in 2008 as it is the highest of all 10 states at a whopping 10.10% decrease. Despite the growth since being positive, Arizona is deemed more vulnerable to going into a recession based on this past event.
In second place with a vulnerable score of 7.72 out of 10 is Tennessee. Influencing this final score is the average annual employment growth of just 1.2% over the past five years and with 40 at-risk counties, it is clear this economy is slowing and showing up to be weaker than in previous years.
With businesses in this state employed a total of 3.2 million people in 2024 already, there has been a 4.74% increase in the employment rate post-financial crash in 2008.
In joint third is Florida and North Carolina with a total score of 7.64 out of 10. With Florida hosting America’s lowest unemployment rates of all time, its third place comes from a risk of oversaturation, which in turn creates a higher chance of falling into a recession. North Carolina, on the other hand, had a consumer spending pullback and real estate re-financing difficulties leaving the chances of a recession at a moderate level.
Florida had a decrease of 8.22% pre-financial crash but now offers the highest job growth post-crash at 6.81%, whilst North Carolina suffered by nearly half at a decrease of 4.76% before the crash in 2008.
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