Confidence does tick a bit up after three declines

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose in May to 102 from 97.5 in April (a slight upward revision). The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, increased to 143.1 in May from 140.6 in April.

Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, rose to 74.6 from 68.8 last month. Despite this improvement, for the fourth consecutive month, the Expectations Index was below 80, the threshold which usually signals a recession ahead.

“Confidence improved in May after three consecutive months of decline,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions was slightly less positive than last month. However, the strong labor market continued to bolster consumers’ overall assessment of the present situation. Views of current labor market conditions improved in May, as fewer respondents said jobs were ‘hard to get,’ which outweighed a slight decline in the number who said jobs were ‘plentiful.’ Looking ahead, fewer consumers expected deterioration in future business conditions, job availability, and income, resulting in an increase in the Expectation Index. Nonetheless, the overall confidence gauge remained within the relatively narrow range it has been hovering in for more than two years. Compared to last month, confidence improved among consumers of all age groups. In terms of income, those making over $100K expressed the largest rise in confidence. On a six-month moving average basis, confidence continued to be highest among the youngest (under 35) and wealthiest (making over $100K) consumers.”

On a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for homes were unchanged in May at their lowest level since Aug.  2012. While still relatively depressed, buying plans for autos rose slightly for a second month, and buying plans for most big-ticket appliances increased for the first time in several months.

Meanwhile, buying plans for electronics products were largely unchanged except for smartphones, which saw renewed interest.

Present Situation

  • Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions was slightly less positive in May.
  • 20.3% of consumers said business conditions were “good,” down from 20.8% in April.
  • 17.6% said business conditions were “bad,” unchanged from last month.
  • Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market improved, on balance, in May.
  • 37.5% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” down from 38.4% in April.
  • But just 13.5% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 15.5%.

Expectations Six Months Hence

  • Consumers were less pessimistic about the short-term business conditions outlook in May.
  • 13.3% of consumers expected business conditions to improve, down from 13.4% in April.
  • 16.8% expected business conditions to worsen, down from 19.1%.
  • Consumers’ assessment of the short-term labor market outlook was also less negative in May.
  • 12.6% of consumers expected more jobs to be available, up from 12.3% in April.
  • 18.2% anticipated fewer jobs, down from 19.8% last month.
  • Consumers’ assessment of their short-term income prospects improved in May.
  • 16.9% of consumers expected their incomes to increase, up from 16.8% in April.
  • 11.0% expected their incomes to decrease, down from 14.0%.

Assessment of Family Finances and Recession Risk

  • Consumers’ assessment of theirFamily’s Current Financial Situation was less positive in May. 
  • Consumers were also slightly less optimistic about their Family’s Financial Situation going forward.
  • Consumers’ perceived likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months rose for the second consecutive month in May. 

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on an online sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Toluna, a technology company that delivers real-time consumer insights and market research through its innovative technology, expertise and panel of over 36 million consumers. 

Image by jcomp on Freepik.

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